Feds can't promise H1N1 shot for all Canadians by Christmas

OTTAWA — If every Canadian heeds the advice of public health officials to get the H1N1 shot, there will not be enough vaccine available by Christmas as the federal government has been promising, the chief public health officer acknowledged Tuesday.

Dr. David Butler-Jones and Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq have consistently said there will be enough vaccine for every Canadian who needs and wants it by Christmas, but "enough" doesn't mean sufficient supply to cover the entire population.

"We should have enough by the end of the year for close to certainly 60 to 75 per cent of the population," Butler-Jones said in an interview with Canwest News Service. "If 33 million wish to be immunized, then that may take us into January."

While the federal government has ordered more than enough vaccine for the entire population — 50.4 million doses — it is basically counting on thousands of Canadians ignoring their advice to be vaccinated when it says there will be enough for everyone by the end of December.

By the end of this week, about 11 million doses will have been distributed by the federal government to the provinces and territories. In a good week, GlaxoSmithKline should produce about three million doses but over the last six weeks less than two million doses per week have been shipped from its factory in Ste-Foy, Que., and one week the number was less than 500,000 doses. If the best-case scenario of three million doses per week is experienced from here on in, 26 million doses will have been distributed by the week ending Dec. 27.

"It's not enough for every Canadian, but not every Canadian obviously is going to be willing to be immunized or desire to be immunized," said Butler-Jones, although he and other top medical officials have been repeating the message for months that getting the vaccine is the best defence against the flu linked to nearly 200 deaths in Canada since it first appeared in the spring.

About one-third of the population gets the seasonal flu shot and polling has suggested that anywhere from 40 to 70 per cent are going to get the H1N1 shot, said Butler-Jones.

"If every single Canadian wanted to be immunized, that would be a fabulous problem to deal with . . . there won't be 34 million doses before Christmas," said Butler-Jones. Some people would be rolling up their sleeves in January, he said.

Vaccination clinics began on Oct. 26 and are still targeting those at highest risk of severe disease. It's not known when jurisdictions will have enough vaccine to be able to deal with the general public.

Once all Canadians who want to be immunized have received their shot, there will likely be thousands of leftover doses since health officials have determined most Canadians only need one shot to provide immunity and some children only need half of one dose.

The World Health Organization has called for countries to donate vaccines from their supply, but so far Canada has not committed to when or how much vaccine it might give away, or, what exactly it plans to do with any excess supply.

Butler-Jones said and he'd be happy if 60 to 70 per cent of the population were immunized by Christmas.

To date, about 20 per cent have received their shots, Butler-Jones said in a news briefing Tuesday, where he reported that 36 Canadians have experienced serious adverse reactions following their H1N1 vaccination.

Serious adverse events are reactions that cause life-threatening illness, hospitalization, disability or death. Butler-Jones said one death is being investigated in an elderly person who suffered anaphylaxis, or a serious allergic reaction, following vaccination.

"It's important to remember that just because a medical event follows vaccination, it may not have been caused by the vaccine," said Butler-Jones.

"Events are carefully investigated to determine if they were related to the vaccine directly, or if they were caused by an underlying health condition or some other reason."

Of the serious reactions, most were allergic reactions, fever, and convulsions. The 36 serious reactions were out of 6.6 million vaccinations and Butler-Jones said the rate of serious reactions to the H1N1 vaccine is less than what is normally seen with the seasonal vaccine.

He said serious adverse events are expected during any mass immunization program, that they are rare and that the benefits of vaccination outweigh any theoretical risks.